Taken together, these results suggested that: (1) a minimum memory-trace strength of the original information must be met for blended recollections to occur and (2) hindsight bias and the misinformation effect-though superficially similar-are induced by different cognitive processes. But the multinomial model revealed that only the second group (with a stronger memory representation of the original information) showed blended recollections. Again, recollections were similarly shifted towards the misinformation in both groups. In a misinformation procedure, one group of subjects read the original information twice, another group thrice. Experiment 2 further investigated how the memory-trace strength influences the likelihood for blended recollections to occur. The misinformation effect, on the other hand, appeared to be based on averaging across two different recollection types. The additional analysis of a multinomial model, however, suggested that blended recollections occurred in the hindsight condition only. Subjects also tend to remember their own future predictions as being more accurate than they were after the fact.
Experiment 1 compared both paradigms using numerical items as material: hindsight as well as misinformation subjects revealed the same mean shift in their recollection of the original values. Hindsight bias, sometimes called the I-knew-it-all-along effect, is the inclination to see past events as being predictable and reasonable to expect, perhaps because they are more available than possible outcomes which did not occur. At first glance, both phenomena seem to result from the same interference process, whereby the subsequent encoding of conflicting information impairs the recall of earlier encoded (original) material. doi: 10.1037/1089-2680.2.2.Questioning the presence of "truly" blended recollections, we investigated two cognitive phenomena: hindsight bias and the misinformation effect. Review of General Psychology, 2(2), 175–220. Confirmation bias: A ubiquitous phenomenon in many guises. Research on hindsight bias: A rich past, a productive present, and a challenging future. Without acknowledge or accept the fact there are also information/studies shown that it is beneficial for children to play games. At the same time, ignoring the other possible alternatives of the information making it biased.Įxample, if a person strongly believes that playing games is harmful for children, he/she would find information/studies that supports the connotation that playing games is harmful. Making him feel confident about it despite the fact that he was uncertain about the answer during the initial stage on doing the test.Ĭonfirmation Bias is the tendency for the individual to find and gather information that is more inclined and supports his/her beliefs ( Nickerson, 1998). The student's first thing that came into his mind after the answer is mentioned: "I knew the answer is B all along". When the teacher mentioned the actual answer is B. Having hindsight bias could potentially lead to people being overconfident on their ability.Īs an example, consider a student who is answering a test question and is uncertain whether he should answer A or B.
Hindsight bias functions in a way that after learning the outcome, it gives the individual a sense of predictability, a higher degree of certainty of the outcome without any prior knowledge.
Hindsight bias can negatively affect decision-making. It causes overconfidence in one's ability to predict other future events and may lead to unnecessary risks. Due to that, it makes the individual believe that he/she could have predicted that outcome with statements such as: "I knew it all along" or "I knew it would happen" ( Hoffrage & Pohl, 2003). What is hindsight bias in psychology Hindsight bias is a psychological phenomenon in which one becomes convinced they accurately predicted an event before it occurred. Hindsight Bias (Also known as the "knew-it-all-along phenomenon"), is the tendency when an individual assumes that he/she knew and predicted an outcome after the outcome has been determined (Hoffrage & Pohl, 2003).
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